Improving Mediation Analysis in Psychology: Addressing Illusory Indirect Effects Driven by Causal Heterogeneity

Improving Mediation Analysis in Psychology: Addressing Illusory Indirect Effects Driven by Causal Heterogeneity Prof Hilary Bergsieker (University of Waterloo, Canada) Statistical mediation analysis is both contested and widely used in psychology for testing theories about causal processes. First, I present a scoping review of mediation analyses from 3,889 eligible articles published

Start

31 March 2026 - 12 h 45 min

End

31 March 2026 - 14 h 00 min

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Departement Seminar

Improving Mediation Analysis in Psychology: Addressing Illusory Indirect Effects Driven by Causal Heterogeneity

Prof Hilary Bergsieker (University of Waterloo, Canada)

Statistical mediation analysis is both contested and widely used in psychology for testing theories about causal processes. First, I present a scoping review of mediation analyses from 3,889 eligible articles published between 2023 and 2024 in leading psychology journals. Relative to past reviews, some improvements were evident—larger samples (median N = 402) and more frequent testing of multiple mediators or alternative models (56% vs. 9-10% in 2015). However, most reported mediations lacked tests of moderation (71%) or statistical power (86%), with a third (38%) using solely correlational data (18% fully cross-sectional). Reporting was inconsistent: Some papers omitted component paths (17%), total effects (11%), or direct effects (22%), even though reliance on index-only approaches can mask model misspecification. Next, I extend models of causal heterogeneity in mediation by identifying a new concern: illusory indirect effects arising from omitted moderators. Using simulations I demonstrate these illusory indirect effects (which satisfy popular mediation criteria), then provide user-friendly diagnostics to detect this problem in existing datasets. A new individual-level index of mediation—derived from standard regression diagnostics—quantifies causal heterogeneity within samples, offering a data-driven method for identifying overlooked moderators. I conclude by discussing practical implications for advancing psychological theory across diverse populations.

Le séminaire aura lieu dans la salle de réunion du CeSCuP ainsi qu’en ligne, via ce lien : [CeSCuP Inspiring Seminar – Prof Hilary Bergsieker] | Réunion-Joindre | Microsoft Teams

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